Senator from Tarija Rodrigo Paz Pereira (31.9%) and former President Jorge Quiroga Ramirez (28.1%) advanced to the second round.

The candidates from the ruling party Eduardo del Castillo and Andronico Rodriguez gained 2.8% and 8.2% respectively, which ended the era of left-wing parties in Bolivia and the fight came to two center-right parties.

At the same time, the main opposition bloc "Unity" with its candidate Samuel Medina, who came in third in votes, gaining 26.9% and thus losing 1.2% to second place, stated that it officially supports Rodrigo Paz Pereira in the second round. He also said he hoped that whoever won the election would be able to decide the fate of political prisoners in the country, especially Luis Fernando Camacho, who was jailed in 2022 due to the 2019 protests.

Jorge Ramirez, in his speech after the first round, said he hoped that after 20 years, the country would begin a new era of reconciliation and national unity.

The last poll before the election, conducted on August 13, showed the following figures:

ü    Samuel Doria Medina "Unity" - 18%.

ü    Jorge Quiroga Ramirez (Independent candidate) - 22.3%

ü    Andronico Rodriguez (candidate of Evo Morales) - 11.4%

ü    Eduardo Del Castillo (candidate of Luis Arce) - 8.1%

ü    Paz Pereira (senator of Tarija) - 7.5%

De facto, the Condorcet paradox and its skillful use ends the 20-year dominance of the left in the republic. The formula for the results is A (Jorge Ramirez) > B (Doria Medina) > C (Paz Pereira) and in a classic Condorcet situation, preferences will be for candidate "C". And since candidate "B" seeks to give his votes to candidate "C", the chances of candidates "A" and "C" become equal in the elections.

The date of the second round is October 19.

Head of the Strategic Analytics Sector of the IPER, Khovansky D.P

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