🤜The Bolivian presidential elections are taking place during a serious split within the ruling party "the Movement for Socialism" (Movimiento al Socialismo) de facto into the faction of Luis Arce (the current President) and Evo Morales (the former President).

1. The right-wing political forces formed "the Unity bloc". Their task is, of course, to oppose Arce together, Samuel Doria Medina became their candidate.

2.  In the ruling party, from the faction of Luis Arce, the Minister of the Government Eduardo Del Castillo is running (Arce himself refused to run for a second term), and from Morales - Andronico Rodriguez - the chairman of the Chamber of Senators.

3. Also, a serious challenger could be former President Jorge Ramirez, who was initially supposed to run from the opposition bloc, but then decided to run as an independent candidate.

4.  The remaining candidates have no chance in the fight for victory - they are "spoiler" candidates.

🧮📑📈From the last 4 social polls of voters, the picture is as follows:

✅Samuel Doria Medina "the Unity bloc":

May 26 - 19.1%

June 14 - 24%

June 20 - 19.6%

July 7 - 18.7%

✅Jorge Quiroga Ramirez (Independent candidate):

May 26 - 18.4%

June 14 - 22.1%

June 20 - 16.6%

July 7 - 18.1%

✅Andronico Rodriguez (candidate of Evo Morales):

May 26 - 14.2%

June 14 - 14.7%

June 20 - 13.7%

July 7 - 11.8%

✅Eduardo Del Castillo (candidate from Luis Arce):

May 26 - 2.3%

June 14 - 1.7%

June 20 - 1.4%

July 7 - 2.3%

💬Based on them, one gets the complete impression that the current President has practically no chances - the fight will be between which of the opposition members wins. Here, the "young newcomer" effect should help Andronico Rodriguez, but the figure of Morales standing behind him could hinder him. At the same time, Doria Medina is one of the largest businessmen in the country, which, of course, should help him in the fight.

Head of the Strategic Analytics Sector of the IPER, Khovansky D.P.

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